As many of us are anxious to get traveling again, we might be wondering how this virus will impact our future travels and the airline industry collectively. We don’t yet know when this pandemic will pass, but studies have at least shown what we can expect from the travel industry going forward. There’s good news and there’s bad news. Here’s what to expect from the coronavirus impact on travel.
Airfare prices will go down.
Good news first. According to the latest study from Dollar Flight Club, airline tickets will decrease by 35% through 2021. This is even lower than the 18% decrease in 2001 as the result of 9/11.
So, if you have big travel aspirations over the next year, now’s the time to lock in those tickets when they’re at their cheapest.
Of course, I wouldn’t recommend traveling global pandemic, but booking tickets for later this year and into 2021 could help you save a nice chunk of change.
Then the prices will go up through 2025.
As the economy gets back on its feet and people feel comfortable to travel again, it’s expected that there will be a sharp 27% increase on airline tickets, on average, through 2025.
Something similar happened in 2003, a couple of years after after 9/11, with a 25% increase in airfare on average. It’s expected that coronavirus will impact travel similarly.
Airlines will have to adapt.
US airlines are expected to lose up to $113 billion due to coronavirus. Airlines will have to adapt in order to maintain profitability and revenue while the industry regrows over the next years.
It’s highly probable to see two large carriers merge and many smaller airlines get eaten up by bigger carriers.
Unfortunately, this will result in a a select few of US airlines controlling the majority of the market.
There will be less flights.
The industry will cut back on flights to save money and increase passenger numbers as a result of the pandemic. A 30% cut in domestic routes is expected to occur between 2020 and 2025 as airlines and the economy get back on their feet.
With fewer flights, there will be less comfort and convenience.
As airlines cut back and downsize, fewer flights will be taking off. This will result in fewer choices of carriers, departure times, and routes, especially for smaller airlines and shorter flights.
Take the Great Recession, for example. After the Great Recession in June 2012, the number of short-haul domestic flights (less than 250 miles) decreased by 24% compared to June 2007.
On a positive note, this may help train and bus companies grow. This si both good for the planet and wonderful for smaller companies!
But let’s keep in mind that with less departures, flights will be fuller and therefore less comfortable as a result.
Imagine if the subway or a city bus only ran a couple of times an hour. It would be packed and would seriously decrease comfort and convenience for passengers. A similar situation would apply to the airline industry. You might have a hard time scoring an aisle to yourself over the next couple of years.
There’s still going to be plenty of demand.
Dollar Flight Club interviewed Americans throughout country about their future travel plans and interests. 61% said that they will feel comfortable to travel once restrictions are lifted, while the rest said they would wait at least 6 months. Plus, only 24% feel less inclined to travel in the future.
So where will people likely head? In the United States, Hawaii, New York City, and Alaska are at the top of the list. Others are hoping to head to Paris, Barcelona, and Bali.
Do you feel discouraged to travel in the future? Or are you like me and ready to take off on a flight as soon as possible?
To learn more about the studies on the impact of the pandemic on airfare prices and travel demand, sign up to the Dollar Flight Club’s coronavirus travel newsletter.
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